The US media advertising market will grow by 70% by 2021 and 80% by 2022

Forrester Research has published its new forecast for US media advertising through 2021. The company says mobile advertising, video advertising and social media advertising will grow and that more traditional online display advertising will suffer in part due to viewability, brand safety, fraud and other issues.

Forrester also claims that Amazon will "steal market share" from Google and Facebook.

The company is confident that social media ad spending will grow to $40 billion by 2021, and that social networks will capture the majority of online display advertising revenue, with much of that growth coming from Facebook. Mobile advertising, with a focus on in-app video, will be the primary driver of non-social media advertising growth during the forecast period. 

According to Forrester, the majority of display ad spending (“about two out of every three mobile ad dollars”) will come from apps. It will also benefit Facebook and Google, which together control eight of the top 10 apps in the US. 

The report projects that Amazon's U.S. advertising revenue will grow to about $2.5 billion by 2021, with some of that coming from Google and Facebook. However, this figure is small compared to the total revenues of Google and Facebook. 

There's a chance that Forrester is underestimating Amazon's ad revenue growth given its place in the market. Several other estimates for Amazon's advertising revenue for 2017 range from $1 billion to more than $3 billion.

Another important trend identified in the report is the shift to private, premium and brand-safe sites: 

Marketers want more information about the products they buy and are willing to pay more to appear in a brand-safe environment that increases visibility, controls fraud, and leverages data for targeting. The state of ad fraud and visibility in open programmatic sales will push them to implement stricter rules regarding their media purchases. 

This last point is perhaps the most interesting macro observation in the report. Market dynamics driven by consumer behavior indicate continued strong growth. But a number of opposing forces (e.g., fraud, brand safety) are preventing this growth.