Space Odyssey: The Future of Human Spaceflight

This Saturday, NASA will make a final decision on whether astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams will return to Earth aboard Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft or if they will instead use SpaceX’s Dragon capsule. This decision is critical for the future of the rapidly developing space industry.

Here's the background: On June 5th, Boeing launched its first crewed mission with the Starliner, planning an eight-day stay aboard the International Space Station (ISS). This mission was supposed to be the final hurdle before the capsule’s certification for regular crew transport to and from the ISS. However, during the final approach to the station, Starliner encountered technical problems, including the failure of several engines and a helium leak in the propulsion system.

Although engineers managed to restore the operation of four out of five malfunctioning engines (Starliner has 28 engines in total), NASA and Boeing have since been investigating the root causes of these issues. This includes analyzing data from the onboard engines and conducting ground tests at the White Sands testing site in New Mexico to study the engines’ performance under conditions similar to those they will face during reentry.

NASA’s Deputy Administrator Ken Bowersox stated that the primary concern is ensuring that the propulsion system works reliably during reentry. Inside NASA, there are still disagreements about the best course of action. Boeing, on the other hand, publicly asserts the safety of Starliner and the thoroughness of its testing campaign.

It is important to note that both NASA and Boeing deny that the Starliner crew is "stranded" at the station, emphasizing that there is no rush to return to Earth and that the decision will be based on careful analysis.

Saturday's high-stakes decision will be a crucial moment in this debate. If NASA determines that Starliner is not safe enough for the astronauts' return, the spacecraft will undock from the station empty, and Wilmore and Williams will return to Earth aboard the SpaceX Dragon capsule. Starliner could still return safely to Earth autonomously in this scenario, but the optics would be less favorable.

NASA has already delayed the launch of SpaceX’s Crew-9 mission to the ISS until September 24th. If the decision is made to use Dragon, Wilmore and Williams could return to Earth upon the completion of the Crew-9 mission in February 2025. NASA may then revise the Crew-9 crew composition to free up seats for the astronauts' return. An alternative scenario could involve one Starliner astronaut returning with Crew-8 and the other with Crew-9, which would be the first time Dragon flies with five crew members.

The Dragon spacecraft has already proven its reliability to NASA, becoming the primary American means of astronaut transport amidst global geopolitical changes that have rendered the use of Russia's Soyuz capsule impossible. Since Dragon’s crew certification in 2020, it has completed eight crewed missions for NASA and several private spaceflights. Starliner is currently the only real competitor, and its exclusion from the program would make Dragon even more essential.